***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.9 17.3 1.4 71.8 65.9 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.2 17.0 1.2 67.7 63.6 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.8 17.4 1.3 69.3 65.2 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 12.2 12.2 14.5 1.2 68.7 65.6 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 13.6 13.8 14.6 1.1 69.7 65.7 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.2 12.5 1.2 74.1 67.4 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.5 17.1 1.3 69.3 64.4 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.3 12.2 1.1 71.0 65.2 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 14.8 14.9 14.7 1.2 71.2 66.3 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.6 13.1 1.2 72.7 66.3 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.5 14.6 13.9 1.0 69.2 65.0 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.5 13.1 1.0 69.0 64.8 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.3 12.5 1.0 70.3 65.0 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.6 14.8 1.2 72.0 66.5 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.7 15.8 1.1 67.8 64.8 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.2 14.7 13.3 1.1 69.0 65.1 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.6 16.8 1.2 67.7 63.3 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.5 12.4 1.3 76.6 67.7 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.1 17.0 1.2 68.8 64.1 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 9.1 10.0 1.1 74.9 66.5 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 14.8 14.7 16.2 1.2 70.1 66.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.9 16.7 1.3 70.0 64.8 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 14.7 14.8 16.9 1.3 71.1 65.6 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.3 14.5 1.3 74.3 67.5 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.0 15.4 15.6 1.2 69.7 65.8 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.8 12.4 1.2 72.1 66.6 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.0 16.5 1.4 71.6 66.4 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.8 14.9 1.1 69.1 65.3 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.9 11.7 1.2 76.7 67.1 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.4 17.3 1.3 68.5 64.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------