***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 11.0 12.5 13.6 -0.4 45.0 44.0 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.8 12.4 13.4 -0.4 43.6 43.4 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 13.1 14.5 13.8 -0.3 46.2 44.8 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.7 9.3 11.0 -0.3 43.0 44.3 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.7 11.5 -0.3 44.9 44.9 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.8 10.1 9.3 0.0 49.3 48.3 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.3 12.9 13.5 -0.3 46.2 44.3 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.3 9.1 0.0 48.6 47.8 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.5 11.7 -0.2 48.1 46.2 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.9 10.1 0.0 50.2 48.7 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.4 11.1 -0.2 44.7 46.0 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.8 10.1 -0.1 46.5 46.7 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.3 11.2 9.9 -0.2 45.6 45.9 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.5 11.6 0.0 49.3 48.7 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 11.4 12.3 12.4 -0.5 40.8 43.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.9 10.5 -0.3 43.8 45.2 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 11.5 12.4 13.1 -0.4 44.2 43.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.6 9.5 0.2 52.6 50.9 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 11.1 12.3 13.4 -0.4 44.1 43.9 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.7 7.5 0.1 50.6 49.6 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 10.9 11.6 12.9 -0.3 46.1 44.7 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.7 11.9 13.3 -0.3 46.9 44.9 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.0 12.5 13.4 -0.3 44.5 44.6 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.7 12.1 11.6 0.1 51.4 49.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.7 12.3 -0.5 41.1 42.3 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.1 9.5 0.0 51.5 49.0 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 11.2 12.5 13.0 -0.4 43.3 43.6 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 9.8 10.3 11.4 -0.4 42.8 44.4 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 9.2 8.8 0.1 51.3 50.3 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.2 12.4 13.7 -0.4 44.6 44.2 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------