***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 11.0 10.6 12.2 -0.9 28.8 34.9 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 10.6 10.7 11.4 -1.4 23.5 28.1 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.2 12.6 12.3 -0.8 31.5 35.5 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.5 10.2 -0.2 40.7 44.0 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.3 10.8 -0.3 38.8 42.8 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.4 9.6 1.3 67.6 68.7 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 10.7 10.3 11.4 -1.4 23.2 27.7 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.7 8.8 0.6 57.3 58.1 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.4 11.2 0.0 45.8 47.4 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.0 9.6 0.3 52.5 53.5 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.4 10.9 0.2 48.2 50.5 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.9 9.9 0.5 53.7 55.8 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.4 10.5 0.8 58.0 60.8 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.4 11.9 10.6 -0.2 48.1 46.3 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.3 12.3 0.1 43.8 47.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.1 11.8 10.5 0.2 49.5 51.2 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 10.6 10.3 10.8 -1.6 19.4 24.8 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.9 8.8 0.2 51.3 51.6 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 10.9 10.9 11.6 -1.2 26.1 30.6 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.8 7.3 0.6 58.5 58.5 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.1 12.0 -0.4 39.8 41.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 10.3 10.2 11.3 -1.3 24.0 28.3 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.8 -0.9 30.6 35.0 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.3 10.7 -0.1 46.7 46.3 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.1 11.1 11.5 -0.7 32.4 36.6 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.4 10.0 1.4 70.7 70.0 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.8 -0.9 28.6 34.2 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.0 10.5 11.1 0.0 44.9 46.9 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.5 8.2 0.4 53.7 54.8 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.9 10.7 11.9 -1.2 25.9 30.7 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------