***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 58.9 75.4 48.6 90.1 54.1 46.7 58.8 74.8 84.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 55.7 72.2 47.2 89.4 48.4 46.3 63.7 72.3 85.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 63.9 76.6 45.6 85.3 45.5 43.3 61.3 79.8 92.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 66.3 83.9 59.0 96.8 50.6 48.6 72.2 83.4 91.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 53.6 68.6 60.8 102.1 55.9 49.8 57.8 66.4 76.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 60.9 78.1 84.4 113.2 65.8 56.7 59.7 73.1 78.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 44.9 68.9 50.5 93.5 54.8 48.6 43.6 62.4 79.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 84.8 103.5 69.6 107.2 60.0 50.8 89.5 96.8 105.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 52.7 67.1 57.9 97.5 54.2 45.0 51.0 58.5 79.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 55.7 76.6 67.7 97.6 52.2 45.1 60.8 73.9 97.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 50.4 61.9 52.8 101.7 56.9 49.3 51.3 58.0 68.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 48.2 68.7 53.8 108.8 63.9 52.1 42.7 64.3 69.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 48.7 72.6 65.7 112.0 64.4 54.7 52.7 60.6 75.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 69.7 83.1 56.6 83.3 40.2 39.7 69.5 85.3 99.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 44.5 58.9 51.4 92.0 48.3 46.9 46.7 60.0 70.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 66.6 67.0 58.4 106.7 58.8 51.9 37.5 61.4 70.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 44.5 69.0 47.9 90.5 48.7 45.3 60.1 71.2 87.1 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 62.2 77.6 72.5 92.5 42.7 42.1 70.7 86.4 93.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 60.2 76.6 44.3 86.4 46.0 44.4 69.7 79.3 96.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 81.2 80.8 80.8 102.7 56.6 49.2 62.5 77.1 87.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 50.5 67.4 48.9 91.3 51.5 43.7 59.3 67.0 73.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 54.2 70.6 44.5 86.3 47.2 41.7 67.8 70.9 82.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 69.5 64.4 43.6 84.8 45.4 42.4 58.5 66.0 72.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 71.3 78.4 58.8 86.6 41.1 40.3 71.0 83.1 87.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 51.2 65.4 61.0 92.7 48.6 47.2 56.6 66.4 81.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 66.0 70.0 58.6 117.7 67.9 57.5 46.9 62.0 68.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 52.1 72.9 59.9 93.3 52.2 48.5 54.0 71.8 89.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 47.6 58.0 57.4 98.4 50.8 49.5 54.2 57.7 68.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 76.3 94.9 71.1 93.8 46.2 43.7 88.9 97.9 115.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 61.6 75.4 47.1 88.1 48.2 46.5 66.1 78.2 86.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------