***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.4 27.3 10.0 120.6 71.2 52.5 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.7 29.2 9.8 117.0 70.0 55.2 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.8 27.5 10.1 113.8 68.9 51.1 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.6 31.7 12.3 117.3 67.2 56.1 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.2 22.7 12.2 113.3 67.5 52.7 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 9.2 22.6 18.6 116.4 68.1 49.6 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.8 18.9 9.5 112.3 69.4 54.9 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.4 35.4 15.7 112.0 65.2 50.6 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 21.1 12.1 109.2 67.8 49.8 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.2 22.4 15.4 105.1 63.5 49.3 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 19.0 22.6 11.3 113.2 66.3 51.7 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.2 11.9 119.0 69.1 51.1 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.7 18.2 13.6 115.8 63.8 50.7 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.0 24.1 16.3 122.7 66.2 51.3 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.1 20.7 10.8 117.4 69.5 54.8 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.9 12.6 120.7 69.8 52.0 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.5 23.4 9.5 110.7 65.7 52.3 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 26.3 19.1 112.2 66.9 49.7 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 26.2 10.0 120.0 69.3 53.8 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 27.6 19.6 119.1 68.0 52.6 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.9 28.9 10.7 118.8 72.9 50.7 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.1 24.5 10.6 118.1 68.8 51.6 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.5 21.3 11.0 123.8 67.2 52.0 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.3 25.6 15.9 118.5 68.0 50.2 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.0 24.9 12.6 115.0 69.4 54.9 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.2 21.9 11.3 114.1 67.7 49.1 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.5 27.3 12.0 114.1 69.7 53.8 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.7 30.2 12.3 119.5 68.4 54.2 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 26.0 41.7 19.0 117.4 68.9 50.3 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 12.5 32.4 9.6 114.4 71.4 54.7 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------