***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.5 21.9 12.4 81.6 56.3 48.5 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.2 19.2 13.1 85.1 58.8 47.3 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.8 23.8 12.0 79.6 54.9 46.0 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.8 39.3 17.7 121.9 74.1 55.7 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.5 27.5 18.4 125.5 75.3 54.6 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.8 20.2 25.5 142.5 73.8 58.7 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.5 17.1 14.1 88.6 60.5 48.1 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.1 35.0 22.8 142.4 74.1 60.1 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.8 27.1 17.4 110.7 70.6 50.9 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 24.7 21.3 122.5 70.7 55.0 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.8 23.3 17.0 141.1 78.0 57.8 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 26.7 16.9 144.4 77.4 59.2 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.8 20.8 18.7 140.7 73.9 59.1 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.8 14.8 78.5 56.0 45.9 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.7 14.4 110.8 66.2 52.4 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.7 27.5 16.7 137.3 75.0 57.8 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.3 18.3 13.3 84.2 55.7 44.6 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 27.2 21.3 104.9 63.1 52.6 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.4 21.1 11.9 81.7 56.5 46.8 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 30.9 25.7 126.7 70.2 58.9 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.1 22.3 13.7 94.6 65.8 48.5 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.0 19.7 12.1 81.6 52.4 43.6 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 11.4 23.8 11.1 79.0 54.3 47.2 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.4 16.1 87.0 58.5 47.8 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.0 21.7 16.3 92.6 62.6 50.1 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.7 26.0 16.0 159.2 78.4 63.1 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.0 20.8 15.5 85.5 57.9 49.3 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.0 20.0 16.3 120.3 70.6 55.3 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 27.0 32.1 21.0 107.5 64.4 53.7 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.1 18.7 12.8 84.1 58.0 48.1 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------