***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 13.0 16.7 132.6 72.7 57.9 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.6 20.1 15.7 118.1 66.0 54.9 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.6 15.0 15.6 115.3 67.5 53.4 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.3 26.4 20.2 128.3 71.1 59.1 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 16.1 20.9 134.5 75.8 59.8 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.9 18.4 28.1 125.1 67.2 57.5 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.5 16.6 127.7 68.3 56.7 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 29.4 39.7 21.5 123.5 68.2 58.5 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.4 19.8 20.5 133.8 75.3 57.3 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 18.7 22.0 119.7 66.0 56.0 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.3 17.6 16.9 121.8 72.2 59.3 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 21.9 17.1 129.6 74.0 60.0 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.9 20.7 21.7 129.3 71.3 58.5 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.6 16.0 17.9 96.7 57.4 48.5 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.0 16.1 16.2 108.2 65.3 54.6 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.2 19.6 19.1 122.1 69.0 57.9 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 16.3 125.2 66.9 55.1 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.8 23.2 106.2 56.9 52.7 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.3 15.2 114.7 66.4 53.9 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.2 24.6 108.0 56.8 54.4 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.7 17.1 131.1 73.6 56.1 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.9 14.4 111.1 68.2 52.6 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.4 15.2 111.9 65.1 52.2 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.6 12.2 19.1 103.9 57.2 50.4 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.1 15.2 21.3 133.5 72.8 59.6 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.8 20.4 17.8 136.5 69.7 58.2 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.7 20.9 135.8 72.9 59.3 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.8 19.0 18.9 119.4 67.4 56.6 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.5 21.9 101.8 55.4 51.6 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.6 9.7 15.7 117.8 67.9 54.2 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------