***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9.6 15.1 9.4 53.2 42.4 33.9 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 11.0 8.7 54.9 43.8 37.6 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 7.5 10.5 7.9 49.3 38.2 32.1 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 7.2 8.5 8.8 43.6 32.5 28.3 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.7 13.2 9.4 50.2 38.0 30.9 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 6.3 9.0 12.1 67.2 42.8 35.6 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.8 11.0 10.3 62.0 46.6 41.7 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 10.3 14.1 9.6 55.6 31.2 30.5 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 5.8 8.2 7.9 45.9 35.4 27.0 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 6.3 9.0 9.0 48.3 29.5 27.6 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.7 5.1 7.6 47.8 31.0 28.7 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 4.5 7.6 7.9 55.1 33.0 31.4 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.8 9.6 11.7 69.8 46.3 38.8 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 7.3 12.0 7.6 43.9 29.5 25.4 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.8 6.9 9.9 53.5 42.2 34.2 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 4.2 6.1 10.0 60.7 38.3 33.9 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.7 8.3 8.7 56.5 42.2 38.2 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 5.6 7.0 8.9 46.6 27.5 25.4 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.0 9.6 7.2 47.6 36.2 32.5 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 8.2 10.3 10.8 57.2 31.9 30.9 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 6.5 9.8 7.3 43.6 34.3 27.8 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 7.4 9.2 7.5 50.2 40.4 33.7 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 6.6 7.5 6.4 42.6 27.1 27.6 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 9.8 8.9 7.7 44.0 28.6 24.9 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 7.7 8.8 10.8 51.4 36.8 30.9 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.0 10.2 13.5 81.0 49.6 44.7 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 8.2 12.4 11.5 57.4 41.4 34.8 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 6.6 10.5 9.8 53.2 40.6 32.6 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 8.1 14.7 9.2 50.0 29.6 27.3 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.1 11.5 9.0 54.2 44.5 36.5 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------