***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 25.8 26.7 26.9 1.9 86.1 81.6 23.9 24.3 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 26.2 27.1 27.6 2.7 87.4 85.0 23.9 24.5 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 25.9 26.7 27.0 2.0 86.3 81.1 23.8 24.8 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 18.5 19.2 24.2 1.2 80.4 73.3 16.9 17.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 26.1 26.7 24.6 1.3 81.5 74.6 24.5 25.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.7 22.0 0.9 73.1 69.1 22.9 23.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 26.1 26.5 27.4 2.5 87.0 84.5 23.6 23.9 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 14.3 15.1 22.9 1.4 79.9 74.9 12.4 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 25.4 26.1 25.1 1.4 81.7 75.2 23.7 24.4 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 25.5 26.1 23.7 1.4 80.9 74.8 23.8 24.3 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 25.8 26.4 24.2 1.4 81.9 75.0 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 24.9 25.3 24.0 1.5 81.7 76.1 23.3 23.8 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 26.0 26.2 23.4 1.3 77.4 73.2 24.1 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 25.8 26.4 25.1 1.8 85.5 78.0 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 26.3 26.5 25.1 1.2 78.8 73.4 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 26.5 26.9 23.9 1.2 78.4 73.3 24.8 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 25.7 26.5 27.0 2.4 86.1 82.8 23.4 23.8 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 24.9 25.5 23.1 1.5 81.2 74.7 23.3 24.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 25.7 26.4 27.6 2.7 87.4 85.0 23.4 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 20.4 20.1 20.7 1.2 74.3 72.2 18.4 19.1 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 25.7 26.6 26.1 1.6 84.0 76.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 25.9 26.9 26.9 2.4 86.4 82.9 23.8 24.3 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 26.0 26.8 27.2 2.5 87.0 84.1 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 25.1 26.1 25.0 1.7 84.6 77.0 23.4 24.1 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 25.9 26.8 24.9 1.5 84.4 77.6 23.8 24.9 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 25.5 26.0 23.2 1.4 80.6 74.5 23.7 24.5 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 25.9 26.5 25.9 1.8 85.3 80.0 23.4 24.4 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 26.3 26.6 24.6 1.1 77.3 71.8 24.8 25.6 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 20.5 21.1 22.0 1.4 78.7 73.5 18.3 18.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 26.1 26.8 27.6 2.5 87.6 84.6 23.7 24.3 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------