***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 28.2 28.6 28.3 1.7 75.5 66.0 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 27.6 28.5 28.9 2.2 78.2 68.1 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 27.6 27.8 28.4 1.7 74.7 65.5 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 20.4 20.5 26.0 1.1 69.1 60.5 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 28.2 28.2 26.0 1.1 70.8 60.1 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.5 26.1 23.5 0.8 65.1 57.7 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.1 28.0 28.7 2.0 78.9 67.6 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.6 24.4 1.2 70.2 60.2 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 27.5 27.8 26.4 1.2 71.2 60.1 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 27.6 27.6 25.0 1.2 70.4 60.1 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.0 28.3 25.5 1.2 71.4 60.7 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 27.0 26.8 25.5 1.3 71.6 61.4 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 28.2 28.2 24.7 1.0 69.5 59.6 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.3 27.4 26.3 1.5 72.2 63.1 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 28.8 28.4 26.5 1.1 67.9 61.0 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 28.6 28.9 25.2 1.1 69.9 60.0 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 26.8 27.4 28.3 1.9 76.3 65.8 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 26.8 26.9 24.4 1.2 69.6 60.5 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.9 27.5 28.9 2.2 77.5 68.1 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 18.5 22.3 22.1 0.9 65.9 58.4 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 27.9 28.0 27.4 1.3 72.7 61.9 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.3 27.5 28.3 1.9 75.3 66.4 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 27.5 28.0 28.5 2.1 76.2 67.2 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 27.0 27.5 26.3 1.4 72.3 62.3 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.1 26.3 1.3 72.3 62.9 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 28.0 27.3 24.8 1.0 68.5 59.9 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.5 27.2 1.5 73.8 64.7 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 28.7 28.5 26.2 1.0 68.2 59.9 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 22.3 22.0 23.4 1.1 67.8 59.7 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 27.3 27.9 28.9 2.1 77.7 68.2 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------