***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 26.0 24.7 26.5 1.0 61.7 60.2 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 27.2 27.3 27.1 1.7 69.7 65.2 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.8 26.5 1.0 61.3 60.0 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 17.8 17.2 24.1 0.2 52.0 52.9 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 25.7 25.2 24.0 0.1 51.1 51.9 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.6 21.5 -0.4 47.1 46.5 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 26.8 26.8 26.9 1.5 68.3 64.5 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 13.3 12.8 22.3 0.0 48.1 50.4 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.5 24.4 0.1 51.0 52.5 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 24.8 24.1 23.0 0.1 49.2 51.0 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.0 23.5 0.0 49.0 51.1 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.9 23.4 0.1 48.9 51.2 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 25.4 24.6 22.7 -0.2 48.2 48.6 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.3 24.9 24.6 0.8 58.3 57.2 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 25.9 25.7 24.6 0.2 52.8 54.2 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 26.1 25.3 23.2 -0.1 48.5 49.6 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 26.8 26.8 26.7 1.5 68.9 64.2 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.7 22.4 0.2 49.7 51.9 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.8 26.2 27.1 1.6 69.3 64.8 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.8 19.2 20.2 0.0 46.5 49.4 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.1 24.5 25.5 0.4 54.4 55.5 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.2 27.4 26.7 1.6 70.1 64.4 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 27.0 26.5 26.7 1.5 67.1 63.4 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.2 24.4 0.5 53.9 55.4 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.9 24.5 0.6 57.0 57.0 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.2 22.8 0.0 50.0 50.5 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.7 25.4 0.8 60.5 59.0 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 26.0 25.6 24.2 0.0 51.3 51.8 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.3 18.7 21.4 0.1 48.4 51.0 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 27.0 26.6 27.1 1.5 68.6 64.2 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------