***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.6 26.8 25.7 1.5 68.0 65.0 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 26.5 26.9 26.5 2.2 73.9 70.0 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.6 25.8 1.6 68.7 65.5 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.9 23.4 1.0 65.0 61.4 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.5 26.5 23.4 1.0 63.2 60.4 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 23.5 24.3 21.2 0.8 58.9 58.8 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.9 26.5 26.3 2.1 73.3 69.1 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.9 21.8 1.1 62.0 60.9 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.0 26.1 23.8 1.0 63.0 60.1 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.7 22.5 1.0 62.1 60.1 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.4 26.2 22.9 1.0 62.4 60.7 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 25.0 24.9 22.8 1.2 64.2 62.1 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.0 26.0 22.2 1.0 62.4 60.3 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.8 26.0 23.8 1.3 65.1 62.5 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.6 26.9 24.0 1.1 68.3 63.5 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.8 22.6 0.9 61.7 59.8 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 25.5 25.4 25.9 1.9 71.7 68.3 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 24.3 25.3 21.9 1.1 63.6 60.5 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 26.0 26.6 26.5 2.2 74.0 69.7 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 19.6 20.5 19.6 1.0 63.2 60.1 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.1 26.2 24.8 1.2 64.8 61.9 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.4 25.8 1.9 73.3 68.4 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 26.3 26.3 26.0 2.0 71.4 68.1 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.4 25.9 23.7 1.3 64.9 62.1 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.4 23.8 1.2 66.8 62.9 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 24.2 25.5 22.4 1.4 66.0 63.8 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 26.0 24.7 1.4 67.6 64.0 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 25.4 26.7 23.6 1.0 64.0 60.9 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.4 20.0 20.8 1.0 63.2 60.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.4 26.4 2.1 73.7 69.0 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------