***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 25.9 27.9 27.0 3.6 90.8 85.0 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 26.2 28.8 28.1 4.6 98.8 90.2 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 26.4 28.0 27.3 3.8 92.0 85.6 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.8 20.3 23.4 2.6 78.5 75.3 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 26.6 28.0 24.9 3.1 84.0 79.6 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 24.6 25.3 22.0 2.5 73.2 73.5 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 25.6 28.3 27.7 4.3 97.5 89.0 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 14.8 15.5 23.1 3.2 83.3 80.8 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 25.8 27.2 25.9 3.2 84.2 81.0 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 26.3 27.5 24.2 3.3 83.8 81.2 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 25.8 27.0 24.7 3.2 83.3 79.9 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 25.0 26.4 24.1 3.4 85.6 82.3 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 26.1 27.3 24.1 3.1 83.8 79.5 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 26.7 28.0 25.8 3.7 90.6 83.7 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 26.3 27.5 25.4 2.4 76.0 73.6 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 26.5 27.7 24.3 3.0 83.6 78.8 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 25.3 27.3 27.2 4.2 94.3 86.9 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 25.5 27.2 23.5 3.3 88.0 81.2 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 25.8 28.5 28.0 4.6 99.1 90.3 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 20.8 21.7 21.0 3.0 83.5 78.7 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 25.9 27.4 26.6 3.2 83.6 80.8 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 25.9 27.4 27.0 4.1 93.9 86.6 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 26.5 28.7 27.7 4.5 98.2 90.0 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 25.7 27.2 25.6 3.5 90.0 82.7 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 26.1 27.7 25.2 3.0 82.8 79.1 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 25.2 26.2 23.0 3.1 81.0 79.3 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 25.9 27.3 26.0 3.3 87.3 82.7 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.2 27.5 24.3 2.5 75.8 73.7 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 20.8 21.7 22.5 3.2 86.3 80.4 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 26.3 28.7 28.0 4.4 98.5 89.7 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------