***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 14.0 14.3 16.4 1.4 86.3 82.4 12.4 13.1 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 14.0 14.3 16.4 1.5 86.6 82.9 12.3 12.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 15.5 16.0 16.2 1.4 86.1 81.8 13.8 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.7 13.6 0.8 77.3 74.3 8.7 9.7 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.3 13.5 0.9 78.7 75.3 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 10.9 11.2 11.4 0.8 80.0 75.8 9.9 10.3 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 13.9 14.2 16.4 1.6 86.9 83.2 12.6 13.3 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 5.9 6.2 11.5 1.0 81.8 79.1 4.7 5.3 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.4 13.8 0.9 80.8 76.2 12.0 12.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.2 12.3 0.9 80.9 77.8 12.0 12.5 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 12.8 13.1 12.9 0.9 81.0 77.8 11.6 12.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 10.9 11.2 12.5 1.0 83.3 80.0 9.9 10.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.6 11.9 0.8 77.6 75.3 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 13.8 14.0 14.0 1.1 82.2 78.4 12.6 13.2 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 14.0 14.2 14.5 0.9 78.6 76.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 13.3 13.5 12.7 0.9 79.1 76.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.6 15.7 1.2 84.1 77.7 12.8 13.3 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 11.7 12.1 11.6 1.0 81.6 78.3 10.2 11.0 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 13.8 14.1 16.3 1.6 86.6 83.6 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.6 7.8 9.5 0.8 77.8 75.0 6.3 7.0 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 13.1 13.3 15.3 1.1 82.2 78.4 12.1 12.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 13.2 13.6 15.7 1.3 84.6 79.2 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 13.5 13.6 16.0 1.6 86.5 84.4 12.0 13.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 13.3 13.5 13.8 1.1 83.1 79.2 12.1 12.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 13.6 13.7 14.7 1.1 78.7 77.9 12.0 13.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.9 11.9 0.9 77.8 74.1 10.7 11.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 13.8 14.1 15.4 1.3 82.1 80.1 12.5 13.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 12.2 12.4 14.0 0.9 78.2 75.7 10.8 11.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 10.1 10.3 10.8 0.9 80.6 77.2 8.6 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 14.2 14.5 16.6 1.6 87.5 83.9 12.5 13.4 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------