***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.6 16.1 17.4 1.1 79.8 64.8 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.1 16.0 17.8 1.4 81.9 68.5 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.9 17.5 17.3 1.0 78.5 63.7 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.1 11.8 14.8 0.5 61.1 57.1 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 11.7 13.5 14.5 0.4 61.8 56.8 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.2 12.4 0.3 61.8 56.0 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.4 16.0 17.7 1.4 81.3 68.4 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.2 12.5 0.4 62.1 56.4 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.8 14.9 14.9 0.5 65.3 57.6 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 14.3 13.2 0.4 64.0 56.4 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 12.4 14.3 13.9 0.4 63.0 57.1 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.4 13.6 0.5 63.6 58.3 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.4 13.9 13.0 0.4 63.7 57.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.6 15.2 0.8 72.8 61.8 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.4 15.5 0.6 64.5 58.7 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 12.9 14.7 13.7 0.4 63.7 57.5 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.7 16.0 17.3 1.2 76.3 66.9 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.4 12.7 0.6 67.5 58.3 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.8 17.7 1.4 81.6 68.1 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.5 10.6 0.4 59.3 55.9 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.8 16.3 0.7 71.3 59.6 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.7 15.2 17.3 1.3 78.5 67.7 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.8 15.4 17.2 1.2 80.6 67.0 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.2 15.0 0.7 72.4 60.6 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.4 15.5 0.7 70.2 60.3 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.1 13.2 0.5 64.3 58.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.4 16.4 1.0 78.3 63.7 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.4 15.1 0.5 62.3 57.9 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.2 11.3 12.0 0.5 63.9 57.9 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 15.6 16.2 17.8 1.4 81.9 67.9 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------