***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.0 15.8 1.5 71.8 69.2 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.2 15.9 1.7 72.9 71.9 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.8 15.8 1.6 72.6 70.8 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.6 13.4 1.3 69.2 69.2 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.4 13.1 1.3 69.5 69.0 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.6 10.6 11.1 1.2 69.7 70.1 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.0 15.9 1.7 73.7 71.5 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.1 11.2 1.3 74.5 71.1 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.2 13.5 1.3 71.3 69.2 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.5 11.9 1.3 73.2 70.4 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.7 13.1 12.6 1.4 73.2 70.9 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.1 12.2 1.4 74.9 72.1 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.3 11.5 1.2 70.4 70.1 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.7 13.5 1.3 72.7 69.6 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.1 14.1 1.4 74.4 71.4 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.3 12.3 1.3 71.2 70.7 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.1 15.2 1.3 69.5 67.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 11.5 11.7 11.3 1.3 74.2 71.0 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.1 15.9 1.7 73.1 72.4 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.6 7.7 9.2 1.1 72.0 68.7 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.2 14.8 1.3 70.7 69.1 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.3 15.2 1.3 69.0 68.0 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.4 15.5 1.7 74.7 73.1 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 13.1 13.3 13.5 1.4 73.4 71.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.7 14.0 1.3 68.5 67.4 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.9 11.6 1.2 67.0 69.3 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.9 14.8 1.4 70.3 68.0 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.9 12.1 13.7 1.4 71.5 70.8 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 10.1 10.3 10.5 1.3 74.7 71.1 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.3 16.1 1.7 73.4 72.0 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------