***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 13.7 15.5 16.1 2.5 91.3 82.9 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.5 14.3 15.2 1.9 84.7 77.2 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 15.4 16.8 15.7 2.2 90.0 81.4 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.8 12.5 1.3 70.5 69.0 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.8 12.0 12.9 1.3 71.4 70.9 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 10.7 10.9 10.7 1.6 75.3 76.9 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 13.5 14.6 15.5 2.1 85.2 78.9 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.1 10.8 1.6 78.7 77.4 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 12.6 12.9 13.2 1.3 73.9 72.2 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 12.5 12.6 11.6 1.4 75.4 74.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 12.2 12.4 12.2 1.3 72.0 72.4 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 10.6 10.8 11.6 1.7 78.7 78.1 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.8 11.2 1.3 67.7 71.3 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.9 13.1 1.5 77.3 75.2 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.4 14.2 1.3 72.1 71.0 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.7 11.9 1.4 71.1 72.5 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.1 14.3 1.4 71.8 70.7 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.8 11.1 10.7 1.4 77.6 75.5 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 13.6 14.6 15.3 2.0 87.3 78.5 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 7.2 7.5 8.6 1.4 77.6 75.8 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.6 13.2 15.0 1.8 82.2 77.6 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.4 14.5 1.5 74.2 72.1 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 13.2 14.3 15.2 2.2 90.5 80.8 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 12.6 13.0 13.0 1.5 79.0 76.1 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 13.7 14.3 14.9 2.1 83.9 79.7 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 11.2 11.4 10.8 1.5 69.2 71.0 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 14.1 15.2 15.3 2.2 84.9 79.7 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.7 13.1 1.3 70.6 70.4 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 9.9 10.1 9.9 1.4 76.7 75.6 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 14.1 15.1 15.8 2.3 90.7 80.9 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------