***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 78.8 75.1 60.9 94.6 52.4 49.3 54.6 73.5 83.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 77.8 73.2 58.2 102.4 57.3 50.8 60.5 72.3 83.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 89.1 87.9 64.3 101.6 57.6 50.7 60.6 82.9 92.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 87.5 82.6 69.3 95.5 50.4 47.0 69.3 82.5 91.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 69.0 67.3 68.8 101.4 55.7 50.4 57.8 63.6 68.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 58.6 68.2 71.8 87.1 41.3 40.7 55.8 72.1 77.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 65.4 68.9 57.6 101.7 58.1 51.2 47.2 59.1 73.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 81.7 94.1 75.1 94.9 50.8 45.8 83.8 93.3 110.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 52.3 69.5 70.5 100.8 55.2 50.1 51.9 59.8 79.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 57.6 77.7 80.1 98.1 52.6 48.2 56.4 74.1 94.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 48.3 60.9 67.3 103.5 58.8 50.2 50.5 57.1 64.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 45.7 65.2 62.7 95.1 52.0 45.4 41.2 64.7 71.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 46.3 61.6 69.5 96.3 51.6 44.9 48.5 61.0 75.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 71.6 90.2 86.3 105.8 58.7 51.6 75.6 86.1 98.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 43.2 59.1 58.8 92.5 51.3 44.9 46.7 59.0 70.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 68.2 66.7 67.4 98.4 54.0 46.6 38.9 63.4 72.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 78.1 78.6 60.7 108.6 60.5 53.2 53.2 72.6 83.6 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 67.2 86.9 85.9 96.7 51.8 47.0 70.7 84.1 90.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 85.7 81.9 61.0 103.8 58.2 50.9 65.8 77.3 97.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 60.9 74.9 84.4 96.5 50.0 46.0 64.3 74.9 84.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 68.3 66.8 65.8 100.4 56.5 50.7 59.1 63.6 69.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 51.3 82.3 66.6 114.6 65.3 54.5 68.3 70.4 82.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 51.1 68.8 66.4 107.5 60.6 52.2 55.5 64.5 72.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 71.6 83.0 79.5 102.7 56.0 49.9 74.0 82.4 87.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 76.0 74.9 71.3 97.6 55.8 50.6 54.8 70.3 80.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 45.2 55.7 56.3 88.7 47.8 41.9 39.4 58.4 69.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 78.0 73.1 65.7 93.3 51.6 48.5 51.4 72.9 84.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 49.1 60.5 65.8 93.4 50.8 44.7 53.8 59.6 63.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 78.0 101.1 87.5 98.0 52.9 47.4 83.5 98.1 109.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 77.0 76.6 58.2 98.2 55.9 49.6 57.9 70.5 83.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------