***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.4 14.1 12.1 71.4 48.2 43.0 5.5 15.9 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.9 21.0 12.4 85.4 55.1 44.4 12.7 18.9 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.3 23.9 13.1 78.4 51.5 44.6 10.8 23.1 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.1 16.6 13.1 70.1 48.8 42.4 10.0 16.9 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.8 14.2 12.4 70.7 49.3 42.4 7.6 14.4 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.6 16.5 15.7 69.8 45.0 40.6 13.6 19.5 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.9 12.7 12.9 88.4 55.9 44.9 8.9 11.9 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.2 19.8 15.0 75.2 50.7 41.6 13.0 18.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.7 16.2 13.1 71.1 48.8 42.7 11.9 17.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.6 17.3 15.2 70.9 48.2 40.9 5.2 17.6 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.4 17.3 11.7 73.7 51.9 40.6 10.3 14.9 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.8 12.6 77.8 53.3 42.2 5.4 11.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.6 15.6 14.5 77.6 53.3 42.5 6.5 14.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.6 14.4 16.7 76.9 49.6 41.7 11.9 14.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.1 11.6 72.8 54.3 43.9 2.3 8.8 20.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.4 13.8 79.2 54.1 43.3 2.7 8.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.6 17.9 12.9 86.7 58.2 43.5 7.6 11.5 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 15.3 17.3 72.9 46.9 40.5 10.7 16.7 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.4 21.5 12.7 85.0 54.3 44.4 9.0 19.9 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 15.1 18.0 81.9 50.8 43.2 6.9 15.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.7 12.8 12.5 74.4 51.6 44.2 9.3 12.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.0 19.9 14.7 93.6 61.6 44.6 11.1 15.8 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.9 16.9 12.8 82.4 52.0 44.0 11.2 16.8 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.0 21.5 15.8 77.3 49.6 42.8 14.6 21.5 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.1 8.5 13.4 72.5 50.0 43.7 6.0 8.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.8 11.5 71.8 49.3 40.9 1.9 6.9 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 7.9 13.0 71.5 48.6 42.8 4.0 8.4 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.1 12.5 13.2 71.4 50.9 43.3 5.8 12.4 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 26.3 23.0 18.0 77.4 48.7 41.9 13.3 23.5 31.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 12.3 20.9 12.5 81.0 52.7 44.1 13.0 19.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------