***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 10.4 17.5 12.6 81.2 51.7 40.2 8.2 17.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.8 16.7 12.0 79.5 51.8 40.2 9.5 15.0 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.8 23.3 13.2 80.2 53.4 39.6 7.8 20.9 33.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 8.9 22.5 15.7 90.9 60.2 41.5 10.1 16.5 26.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 9.1 22.6 15.0 92.3 60.3 42.2 11.4 15.1 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.6 14.7 17.1 85.1 52.9 41.0 10.8 13.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 6.3 14.2 11.9 80.9 51.9 40.3 6.1 13.7 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 18.7 31.7 17.1 87.8 54.9 43.0 23.0 28.5 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.4 22.2 15.7 91.5 59.0 42.4 10.6 19.6 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 17.7 18.0 90.6 56.6 43.3 10.0 13.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.2 16.4 13.9 93.3 58.1 42.5 10.7 14.9 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.3 13.8 13.9 85.4 56.5 41.3 7.5 10.3 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 6.0 15.7 15.3 83.3 55.6 40.2 6.0 11.6 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 16.6 29.7 19.6 85.6 53.5 40.5 16.4 25.0 36.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 11.3 13.8 95.3 60.7 41.6 5.9 9.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.6 12.5 14.4 87.8 56.2 41.0 7.2 10.6 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.3 20.2 13.3 87.1 56.8 43.3 5.9 14.0 32.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 14.2 25.7 20.6 89.9 55.1 42.3 17.3 21.3 31.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.1 20.3 12.6 79.9 52.9 40.0 5.2 19.8 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.8 24.0 20.1 88.6 55.4 42.7 7.3 18.6 27.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 9.1 16.5 13.8 84.8 56.4 41.7 10.2 14.7 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.8 22.0 15.2 95.3 59.2 44.4 8.6 18.4 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.1 22.5 14.0 82.6 54.8 40.1 13.2 19.5 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 12.3 24.7 18.2 86.9 55.6 40.9 15.9 22.2 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 8.2 20.9 14.9 85.2 56.0 42.2 11.6 17.0 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.0 12.3 12.9 80.6 56.6 40.0 4.9 10.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 7.2 16.7 13.8 82.0 52.7 41.0 8.1 16.0 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.9 18.1 15.2 92.9 60.5 41.3 5.8 12.5 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.5 29.4 21.1 89.6 54.5 43.0 15.8 26.0 33.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.4 16.7 11.9 77.3 51.5 39.1 10.1 16.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------