***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.6 14.0 94.9 62.5 47.3 1.9 5.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 13.1 13.9 104.9 64.8 45.3 1.9 7.1 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.6 9.8 16.4 108.6 63.9 46.9 1.8 4.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 16.9 17.5 98.1 61.7 42.6 4.6 9.9 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.0 18.3 107.6 64.8 45.1 3.1 7.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 4.9 11.6 17.4 83.0 50.8 38.0 7.3 11.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.0 8.3 13.0 99.3 61.6 45.5 1.3 4.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.3 25.4 17.8 95.8 56.5 43.4 12.1 22.2 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.1 16.7 18.2 102.4 61.0 42.8 2.8 9.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.0 19.0 99.0 59.4 42.4 5.3 10.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.6 18.8 108.3 65.5 45.0 7.4 8.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.1 15.2 16.1 95.8 57.9 43.9 8.6 13.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.8 15.2 19.2 103.6 63.0 45.8 3.2 8.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.2 18.8 21.4 107.1 66.4 40.6 8.9 13.4 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.7 17.1 102.1 65.7 47.1 3.4 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.8 14.8 17.9 98.8 62.6 43.0 6.3 11.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.5 13.3 105.8 64.8 47.3 2.2 6.2 11.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 15.0 19.2 90.3 53.7 39.3 7.6 14.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.6 15.0 107.2 65.3 44.3 2.7 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.4 15.0 20.5 99.2 56.4 45.2 8.2 11.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.9 16.7 100.9 62.3 44.3 4.1 6.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.6 15.5 116.8 67.5 48.5 4.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.9 11.0 17.2 111.4 66.7 42.1 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 6.3 14.3 19.6 100.8 60.2 40.6 9.8 12.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.4 10.3 16.7 92.0 62.0 45.1 3.7 8.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.7 17.7 106.2 60.7 46.9 5.9 9.6 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.5 14.8 87.6 59.4 44.9 1.6 7.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.1 14.5 17.3 98.7 62.7 43.5 3.7 9.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.1 17.8 20.3 93.8 54.6 42.0 11.1 14.7 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.2 14.0 101.7 62.9 44.7 3.2 6.3 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------