***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.3 26.6 22.2 129.5 72.1 65.4 12.6 16.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.7 17.4 19.8 143.1 76.3 69.3 7.8 12.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 21.1 24.5 21.6 143.6 75.2 67.4 10.1 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 15.6 24.7 22.9 122.7 69.8 62.1 10.4 13.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 24.2 29.4 23.0 135.9 74.5 66.6 9.4 15.3 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.5 21.6 114.6 68.7 55.1 6.6 12.9 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 18.5 20.5 19.8 139.5 75.7 68.3 4.8 12.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 25.5 30.7 25.2 117.8 68.7 60.6 14.7 23.4 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 17.9 21.0 23.5 141.4 76.1 68.1 8.8 13.1 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 18.2 28.6 27.8 132.3 74.5 65.2 12.0 15.4 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.0 21.5 22.9 135.8 74.2 65.7 5.7 13.3 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.7 20.8 20.0 120.0 69.7 61.6 8.1 10.3 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 18.2 20.6 123.1 71.6 60.5 4.9 9.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 32.5 39.8 28.5 168.6 79.4 72.9 16.4 18.8 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.1 17.8 16.2 99.6 67.4 53.9 4.4 9.4 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 23.5 22.9 21.3 128.7 73.0 63.3 7.0 11.5 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.0 17.6 21.2 160.7 80.1 71.4 3.6 8.6 11.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 18.2 29.1 28.7 140.0 75.1 65.9 6.8 15.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 19.5 21.9 20.6 147.6 76.0 70.1 9.7 13.0 20.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 15.3 20.7 25.8 115.1 64.6 58.5 10.7 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 21.2 21.6 22.8 143.2 75.5 67.4 9.0 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.1 16.5 21.3 160.9 79.3 71.8 5.7 10.1 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 18.8 20.7 22.4 160.9 76.2 72.0 8.7 13.0 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 24.3 31.2 25.9 156.4 78.7 68.9 12.6 15.2 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 22.1 27.4 26.3 139.0 73.0 66.8 6.8 12.7 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.0 16.4 14.3 95.7 62.1 51.0 5.6 13.1 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 23.3 25.8 24.1 130.3 71.1 65.4 8.8 17.4 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.4 18.2 20.2 110.9 70.0 58.4 8.3 12.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 23.1 41.6 28.0 135.9 73.2 64.8 14.6 18.8 35.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 20.6 23.4 19.8 134.8 75.0 67.1 9.5 12.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------