***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 23.5 24.0 24.3 -0.6 42.6 42.3 23.7 24.3 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 23.8 23.6 23.9 -1.2 34.3 35.0 23.6 24.7 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 23.9 24.5 24.5 -0.6 43.4 42.7 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.8 22.1 -0.1 52.9 50.0 16.8 17.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.8 22.6 -0.4 44.9 45.2 24.4 24.9 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.6 20.3 -0.2 49.1 47.8 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 23.4 23.3 23.8 -1.2 33.6 35.0 23.3 24.1 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.6 20.8 -0.3 49.0 46.9 12.4 12.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.3 23.1 -0.4 45.4 44.9 23.6 24.3 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.1 21.5 -0.3 47.4 46.3 23.6 24.2 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.6 22.8 -0.4 47.6 46.4 24.0 24.7 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.7 22.2 -0.3 50.4 47.4 23.1 23.6 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.3 25.0 21.9 -0.3 46.7 46.5 24.1 25.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 23.7 23.9 22.4 -0.7 40.0 40.6 23.6 24.6 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.7 24.0 -0.1 54.4 51.0 25.0 25.6 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 25.9 25.6 22.3 -0.3 48.0 47.2 24.5 25.7 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.2 23.6 -1.1 32.8 35.1 23.2 23.9 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.5 20.8 -0.3 48.4 46.3 23.1 23.7 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 23.3 23.4 24.1 -1.1 37.1 37.0 23.2 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.0 18.5 -0.2 50.6 47.9 18.2 19.0 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.5 24.1 -0.4 46.5 45.7 23.8 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 23.4 23.8 23.5 -1.1 35.7 36.4 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 23.8 23.8 24.1 -0.9 39.7 39.3 23.8 24.6 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 23.4 23.8 22.6 -0.5 45.1 43.7 23.3 24.1 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.3 22.9 -0.5 43.4 43.7 23.8 24.8 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.4 21.6 -0.2 51.2 48.4 23.5 24.3 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 23.6 24.0 23.5 -0.7 41.9 41.3 23.4 24.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.5 22.9 0.0 55.3 51.9 24.9 25.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.6 19.9 -0.3 47.7 46.3 18.2 18.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.6 23.6 24.0 -1.1 35.5 36.4 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------