***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.2 26.4 -0.1 53.2 51.2 25.2 27.2 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.6 25.9 -0.5 45.0 46.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.5 26.6 0.0 51.9 51.4 24.7 26.5 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.2 20.6 24.4 0.3 59.0 55.2 17.6 19.9 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.3 24.6 0.0 55.6 52.5 25.3 27.0 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.7 21.9 0.0 55.5 52.4 23.7 25.5 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.8 25.9 -0.5 44.3 46.6 24.3 26.0 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.8 22.9 0.1 55.3 53.0 13.1 14.5 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.6 24.7 0.0 54.9 52.3 25.0 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.7 23.4 0.1 54.5 52.8 24.8 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.1 24.4 0.0 53.8 52.5 25.1 26.8 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.3 24.3 0.1 55.2 53.0 24.3 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.1 23.2 0.0 54.0 52.4 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.5 24.1 -0.2 48.1 49.4 24.3 26.0 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 25.5 0.3 57.7 55.3 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.1 27.8 24.0 0.1 55.0 53.5 25.5 27.6 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.4 25.8 -0.5 45.2 46.7 24.1 25.6 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.9 22.8 0.1 54.1 52.8 24.5 25.4 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.3 26.1 -0.4 46.5 47.6 24.0 25.7 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.2 20.3 0.3 56.3 53.8 19.7 20.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 27.1 27.0 25.8 0.2 56.1 53.5 25.1 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.4 25.6 -0.4 44.9 47.1 24.8 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.6 26.2 -0.3 47.5 48.7 24.2 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.0 24.3 0.0 51.1 51.5 24.2 25.8 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.0 24.7 0.1 54.6 53.0 25.3 26.7 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.5 23.5 0.0 52.9 51.8 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.2 25.4 -0.1 52.5 51.1 24.5 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.1 24.7 0.4 58.6 55.6 25.9 27.7 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.3 21.7 0.1 53.0 52.5 19.5 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.8 26.0 -0.4 46.2 47.5 24.5 26.0 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------