***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 22.3 24.2 25.6 0.0 50.3 49.5 22.3 24.1 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.6 25.3 -0.3 47.4 47.3 23.3 24.6 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.7 25.9 0.1 52.2 50.2 23.0 24.6 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.6 23.5 0.3 58.5 52.9 16.1 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.3 25.1 23.6 -0.1 52.5 49.0 23.3 24.8 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 24.3 21.1 0.1 56.6 51.3 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.1 25.3 -0.3 47.5 47.2 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.5 13.6 22.0 0.1 55.1 50.3 11.6 13.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.7 23.8 -0.1 51.6 48.7 22.9 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.9 22.6 0.1 54.1 49.7 22.8 23.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.6 25.2 23.4 -0.1 51.9 48.7 23.2 25.0 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 22.4 24.0 23.3 0.1 54.6 50.1 22.5 23.5 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 23.4 25.6 22.4 0.0 55.5 50.3 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.3 23.5 -0.1 50.9 48.5 23.2 24.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.9 24.7 0.4 59.3 54.0 24.3 25.3 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.6 23.1 0.1 55.6 50.5 23.7 25.4 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.9 25.3 -0.2 46.8 48.4 22.7 24.3 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.0 22.1 0.2 55.0 50.8 22.2 23.6 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.2 25.5 -0.2 48.8 48.2 23.0 24.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.8 19.6 0.5 57.7 53.1 18.0 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.6 25.0 0.1 53.4 50.9 22.9 24.6 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.5 25.1 -0.1 48.7 49.0 23.2 24.5 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.4 25.5 -0.1 49.9 49.0 23.3 24.4 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.9 23.6 0.1 52.4 49.7 22.9 23.9 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.8 24.9 23.8 0.1 52.8 50.6 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.3 25.3 22.8 0.1 58.5 51.6 23.2 24.6 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.4 24.3 24.6 0.0 50.5 49.4 23.0 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.3 26.0 23.8 0.4 59.0 53.6 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.7 19.1 21.1 0.3 55.0 51.0 17.9 18.9 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.6 25.4 -0.3 48.3 47.3 23.2 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------