***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 23.7 26.2 24.8 0.1 55.0 50.5 23.8 26.1 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 23.3 24.7 24.3 -0.7 46.2 44.5 23.0 25.0 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 23.6 25.7 25.0 0.1 54.6 50.4 23.5 25.1 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.1 19.1 22.5 0.8 66.4 57.2 15.3 17.5 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.0 23.2 0.4 60.0 53.6 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.5 24.3 21.1 0.9 65.8 58.4 22.1 22.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 22.9 24.0 24.3 -0.6 45.8 44.5 23.1 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.8 13.8 21.3 0.5 63.2 54.3 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.2 25.3 23.8 0.3 58.7 52.9 22.3 24.7 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.2 22.2 0.5 61.9 54.2 22.7 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.4 26.0 23.6 0.5 62.1 54.7 23.1 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.4 24.8 22.6 0.5 62.6 54.4 21.9 23.1 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.4 22.8 0.5 61.2 54.7 23.0 24.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.0 24.7 22.9 -0.1 52.1 49.2 23.1 24.3 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.5 24.7 0.8 66.7 57.7 23.7 25.3 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.3 23.1 0.6 61.8 55.7 23.8 24.9 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.6 23.6 24.0 -0.6 45.3 44.3 22.5 24.4 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.2 24.9 21.3 0.5 61.1 53.7 21.7 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.7 24.2 24.5 -0.5 48.1 45.8 22.9 24.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 17.0 20.2 19.1 0.6 63.0 54.7 16.7 19.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.4 24.7 0.4 59.5 53.3 22.8 24.9 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 23.0 24.1 23.9 -0.6 44.7 44.7 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 23.3 24.9 24.5 -0.4 49.8 47.6 23.2 24.9 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.0 23.2 0.2 56.7 51.6 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.7 26.1 23.5 0.2 58.5 52.2 23.1 25.3 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.7 22.0 0.6 62.1 54.8 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 23.2 25.9 24.0 0.0 54.6 50.1 22.9 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.9 23.5 0.9 68.0 58.6 23.7 25.1 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.2 20.3 20.5 0.5 61.4 53.7 16.3 19.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.3 24.9 24.5 -0.5 48.5 45.8 23.1 25.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------