***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.6 15.7 -0.4 43.0 45.5 13.8 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.8 15.5 -0.5 40.3 43.7 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.5 16.0 -0.3 43.9 47.0 14.9 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.8 13.4 -0.2 46.1 48.1 10.0 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.8 13.3 -0.3 44.3 46.7 12.3 12.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.7 11.3 -0.1 48.4 48.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.0 15.5 -0.6 40.8 43.5 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.7 11.2 0.0 48.5 50.0 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.9 13.5 -0.2 46.6 47.4 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.6 12.0 0.0 48.0 49.1 13.2 13.7 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.3 12.9 -0.2 46.6 47.7 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.7 12.1 -0.1 48.1 48.8 11.0 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.3 11.4 -0.2 45.2 46.5 12.5 13.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.2 13.5 -0.1 45.5 48.3 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.9 14.8 -0.1 47.0 49.2 14.1 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.2 12.3 -0.2 46.3 47.3 13.0 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.6 15.3 -0.4 42.8 45.0 13.5 15.0 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.5 11.3 0.0 49.7 50.3 11.8 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.3 15.6 -0.4 41.5 44.9 13.3 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.3 9.1 0.1 51.7 51.3 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.8 15.0 -0.2 45.8 48.0 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.7 15.2 -0.3 42.4 45.6 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.7 15.5 -0.3 44.1 46.4 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.6 13.3 -0.1 46.4 48.9 13.1 13.8 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.9 14.2 -0.4 44.2 45.9 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.5 11.2 -0.2 47.5 47.9 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.9 15.0 -0.4 44.6 45.7 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.9 13.8 -0.1 47.8 49.8 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.8 10.7 0.1 50.3 51.1 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.1 15.7 -0.5 41.2 43.8 13.8 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------