***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.4 14.9 -0.5 42.9 43.5 11.6 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 11.4 12.6 14.6 -0.6 41.1 41.7 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.0 15.2 -0.3 43.2 44.7 13.5 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.2 12.7 -0.1 45.2 47.3 8.3 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.1 12.6 -0.2 44.7 46.0 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.5 10.8 0.2 53.2 51.5 9.6 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.2 14.7 -0.7 38.9 41.8 12.0 13.4 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.0 10.6 0.0 49.0 49.2 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 12.7 -0.2 44.6 45.4 11.5 12.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.2 11.3 -0.1 47.6 47.9 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.9 12.2 -0.2 46.5 47.0 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.3 11.4 -0.1 46.5 47.6 9.4 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.4 10.7 -0.1 45.6 47.3 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.5 12.7 -0.3 43.7 44.8 11.9 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.3 14.0 0.0 46.4 48.3 12.8 13.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.2 11.6 -0.1 47.4 48.0 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.8 14.5 -0.6 40.5 42.5 12.3 13.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.7 10.5 0.0 49.0 49.3 10.3 10.8 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.7 12.4 14.8 -0.5 43.5 42.9 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.0 8.4 0.1 51.5 51.6 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.0 14.2 -0.2 45.5 46.0 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.1 14.4 -0.5 42.3 43.6 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.3 12.4 14.7 -0.4 45.1 44.0 11.3 12.8 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.1 12.5 -0.2 45.8 46.4 11.3 12.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.8 13.5 -0.3 43.4 45.3 11.2 12.6 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.0 10.4 -0.2 43.3 45.8 10.3 11.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.1 14.2 -0.5 42.8 44.0 11.4 12.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 13.1 0.0 47.5 49.3 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.5 10.0 0.1 50.7 50.4 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.3 14.8 -0.6 40.7 41.8 12.2 13.0 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------