***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 10.8 12.8 14.2 -0.4 46.5 46.0 11.7 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 11.1 12.0 13.6 -0.8 37.7 40.3 11.6 13.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 13.3 14.5 14.1 -0.5 44.7 43.9 13.2 15.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.8 11.8 0.0 50.0 49.1 8.2 9.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 9.8 11.0 12.1 -0.2 48.8 47.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.0 9.7 0.0 52.0 49.5 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 11.3 12.2 13.7 -0.7 38.0 41.1 11.5 12.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.2 9.3 -0.4 47.1 44.2 3.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 10.5 11.4 12.1 -0.3 43.4 45.3 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.8 10.2 -0.4 44.7 44.3 11.2 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 10.4 11.8 11.5 -0.2 48.4 46.2 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.5 10.0 10.4 -0.3 48.7 45.9 9.0 10.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.1 10.2 -0.3 46.8 46.1 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.2 12.3 11.5 -0.6 36.7 40.8 11.9 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.6 13.3 -0.1 49.3 49.0 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.3 11.0 -0.2 48.7 46.9 11.4 12.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 11.5 12.5 13.3 -0.8 38.0 40.5 12.0 12.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 8.9 10.1 9.5 -0.4 42.9 43.8 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 11.2 12.0 13.6 -0.8 37.3 40.4 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.1 6.8 7.7 -0.2 49.8 46.4 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 10.4 11.9 13.4 -0.3 45.8 46.3 11.0 12.1 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 10.6 11.7 13.3 -0.8 36.1 39.7 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 11.0 12.0 13.4 -0.8 36.2 40.1 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 10.5 11.5 11.6 -0.5 39.2 42.9 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.3 13.2 -0.2 48.8 48.2 11.6 12.3 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.9 9.7 -0.1 51.2 48.1 9.8 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 11.4 12.3 13.7 -0.2 48.5 47.1 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.9 12.2 0.0 49.8 49.2 10.2 10.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.8 8.6 8.8 -0.4 41.8 43.6 7.8 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.3 12.0 13.9 -0.7 38.4 41.1 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------