***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 10.2 10.2 11.1 -1.9 20.9 23.7 11.6 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.5 -2.2 19.7 20.2 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 11.3 11.5 11.2 -1.8 21.9 24.2 13.0 13.4 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 6.1 7.0 8.9 -1.4 26.4 28.1 7.3 8.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 9.3 9.3 9.7 -1.4 25.7 27.4 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 7.8 9.1 7.1 -1.3 28.2 28.6 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 10.1 10.0 10.4 -2.3 19.6 19.9 10.9 12.3 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 2.6 3.0 6.7 -1.5 25.6 26.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 10.1 10.4 9.8 -1.3 26.7 27.5 10.7 11.6 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 9.9 10.3 7.8 -1.4 26.2 27.3 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 10.0 9.9 9.4 -1.3 27.2 28.8 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.0 -1.4 25.7 27.1 8.6 9.8 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 9.5 9.8 8.5 -1.2 28.2 29.0 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 10.7 10.6 9.2 -1.5 25.7 25.8 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 11.1 11.1 10.9 -1.2 27.8 29.2 11.5 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 10.1 10.5 8.9 -1.4 26.3 27.9 11.0 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.1 -2.2 18.6 19.2 11.5 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 8.4 8.6 7.2 -1.4 27.1 27.9 8.8 9.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 10.2 10.2 10.6 -2.1 20.2 20.7 11.5 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 4.6 4.7 5.5 -1.2 28.3 29.9 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.9 -1.5 25.4 26.6 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 9.7 9.6 10.4 -2.1 18.8 19.5 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 10.2 10.1 10.5 -2.1 21.4 21.2 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 10.0 10.1 9.4 -1.4 27.4 27.2 10.4 11.2 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.3 -1.9 21.7 23.8 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 9.0 9.4 7.4 -1.3 28.6 29.3 9.7 10.6 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 9.5 11.0 10.6 -1.9 21.1 23.3 11.4 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.8 -1.2 28.3 30.3 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 6.3 6.9 6.4 -1.4 25.9 27.0 7.4 8.5 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 10.1 10.1 10.8 -2.2 20.1 21.0 11.5 12.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------