***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 77.4 70.0 55.9 90.1 45.8 44.6 53.4 70.1 80.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 51.7 64.5 48.6 81.9 43.0 41.5 59.6 69.8 83.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 82.8 76.2 55.5 90.8 50.4 46.6 59.0 76.0 83.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 82.8 85.1 66.6 105.4 58.8 54.0 62.9 77.1 88.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 66.9 66.5 62.0 102.2 56.0 52.5 55.7 62.3 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 74.2 71.1 75.9 107.7 55.1 56.8 53.9 69.1 77.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 41.1 55.7 48.9 83.8 43.2 41.5 45.2 60.1 69.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 103.4 107.9 76.4 110.1 63.0 58.9 81.2 94.4 117.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 62.9 60.4 63.0 98.4 55.7 50.9 52.2 57.3 76.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 78.4 78.7 77.2 105.5 59.2 55.8 51.9 71.2 94.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 45.7 56.8 61.0 102.4 56.0 52.9 45.5 56.0 68.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 68.1 70.2 64.3 107.3 61.8 57.1 42.8 64.6 71.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 68.9 70.6 70.7 109.4 63.2 56.5 46.9 61.7 71.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 67.8 84.6 70.8 90.0 47.3 46.3 73.6 85.5 98.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 60.9 60.8 63.0 111.7 58.3 55.5 41.1 57.7 66.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 65.3 69.0 62.1 103.1 57.3 53.3 41.2 60.7 72.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 42.3 59.9 47.9 82.5 42.4 40.6 48.8 65.3 82.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 80.3 91.4 83.2 103.2 60.9 54.5 63.8 74.9 92.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 55.4 71.2 50.4 83.9 44.3 43.1 59.7 75.1 98.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 79.2 83.4 87.1 111.8 66.1 59.2 59.7 75.3 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 67.2 62.2 58.9 94.1 53.8 48.6 47.2 61.9 69.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 51.5 68.5 51.1 83.3 42.7 41.1 65.1 70.1 82.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 47.0 64.4 53.6 88.2 47.8 45.5 51.1 64.8 71.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 66.2 77.6 69.5 95.4 54.1 49.7 62.9 76.7 83.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 68.4 58.7 65.3 94.0 47.7 47.2 50.1 61.1 78.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 63.5 62.4 62.1 106.1 58.5 56.1 41.6 58.0 66.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 78.5 60.4 61.1 90.1 45.4 44.4 45.1 72.8 90.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 59.2 61.2 65.5 108.7 60.9 55.0 48.4 56.8 62.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 99.7 96.9 84.2 104.3 60.9 55.3 75.0 88.8 105.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 47.9 63.3 51.3 86.3 46.4 43.9 55.8 66.2 80.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------