***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 28.8 12.6 97.3 57.2 46.5 4.6 15.9 34.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.1 24.4 12.0 95.7 58.8 45.9 8.9 19.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 7.2 23.6 10.9 89.2 57.6 43.0 5.9 15.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.7 13.6 122.3 66.7 51.8 6.9 18.9 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.7 15.1 10.8 97.8 58.2 46.9 8.3 13.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.2 28.4 15.5 112.8 64.7 54.3 12.8 21.4 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.8 14.2 12.1 94.8 58.3 45.9 10.8 12.5 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.3 22.4 15.1 100.9 57.8 47.7 10.6 16.8 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.4 18.7 11.2 88.9 51.7 44.4 10.0 18.0 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.0 18.0 14.5 93.6 52.9 45.4 4.5 16.6 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.9 17.8 10.7 98.5 59.4 47.1 7.1 13.2 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 14.5 12.7 103.6 61.1 49.6 4.1 13.1 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.7 24.2 13.9 111.1 66.7 53.3 5.5 17.5 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.6 13.3 13.7 75.6 44.7 39.9 11.1 13.6 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 20.1 14.3 140.5 70.7 55.8 2.5 10.6 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.9 13.9 12.2 109.6 64.5 51.1 2.6 8.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.9 21.6 12.2 95.8 61.7 47.0 4.7 13.8 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 16.2 16.3 90.1 51.5 44.9 8.9 15.3 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.3 21.1 11.8 94.4 59.1 45.1 6.7 17.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.2 16.9 96.3 54.7 47.1 6.4 17.4 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.5 16.8 10.9 91.2 56.3 44.9 8.6 13.8 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.2 19.1 13.0 98.0 59.9 48.3 8.8 14.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.7 19.1 11.2 88.4 59.1 42.9 6.2 16.0 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.2 19.9 12.9 82.8 51.6 41.9 10.7 19.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.1 14.1 105.0 59.7 49.3 4.4 8.9 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.8 23.0 12.2 104.8 64.2 53.2 0.9 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.8 27.8 13.8 96.8 55.9 47.4 3.0 16.0 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.7 13.6 125.8 65.9 52.8 3.6 10.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 19.0 16.1 87.7 51.4 44.4 8.6 18.4 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.8 22.0 11.8 94.2 57.4 45.3 12.1 19.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------