***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 18.9 29.4 17.6 119.5 71.4 56.0 8.1 14.0 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.0 21.0 15.0 112.3 65.1 55.8 7.7 11.8 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.9 35.8 17.8 120.4 73.4 56.3 9.3 17.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 27.0 24.7 21.4 129.1 71.9 60.1 11.5 13.8 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 21.0 18.2 113.3 67.8 56.0 8.4 12.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.4 18.7 23.6 131.1 71.8 61.2 10.5 13.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.3 17.0 14.9 110.7 65.7 54.4 5.3 8.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.5 33.5 21.2 123.3 70.9 58.1 16.5 23.7 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 19.5 23.6 18.5 106.4 66.1 52.9 10.9 17.3 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.2 20.3 22.0 117.2 69.3 56.2 9.0 14.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.2 19.3 16.6 116.4 70.4 55.4 9.1 14.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.2 16.3 18.3 123.6 71.2 58.1 6.8 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.7 18.0 21.2 129.4 71.0 58.1 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 12.2 27.9 21.5 103.9 63.3 51.4 14.9 21.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.3 17.0 20.8 146.4 78.3 62.6 5.4 9.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.4 18.8 125.2 71.5 57.7 7.8 10.6 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 19.0 20.1 14.3 103.2 66.2 52.7 5.0 14.4 20.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 13.4 28.7 24.2 113.9 66.7 55.5 12.5 21.0 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.9 27.8 16.0 118.7 69.2 56.0 5.9 19.6 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.7 22.8 24.2 119.8 66.0 57.9 8.8 12.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.6 22.9 18.4 114.0 68.1 54.8 9.5 15.0 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.7 23.4 16.5 111.2 68.0 53.5 5.6 13.2 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.0 28.6 17.2 121.5 74.9 54.9 9.2 18.7 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.2 27.8 21.2 114.2 67.9 54.6 10.0 23.1 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 20.1 23.3 20.6 118.7 67.5 56.4 10.6 18.0 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 12.8 18.9 134.3 70.3 60.2 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.5 21.7 19.6 121.6 70.2 56.9 7.2 14.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 19.2 22.3 21.4 136.2 75.4 61.6 7.8 11.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 14.0 30.9 24.0 113.5 66.9 56.5 13.5 21.2 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.3 28.7 16.1 119.5 70.7 57.4 7.4 11.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------