***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 12.4 16.1 96.2 65.3 51.5 3.9 8.6 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.6 13.8 12.8 80.5 59.2 47.6 3.1 7.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 11.8 16.0 94.0 65.7 50.3 2.9 5.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 25.3 17.5 112.2 70.2 55.9 3.8 11.1 24.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.6 17.3 19.2 126.0 74.0 58.7 6.0 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.5 16.8 20.2 106.3 60.7 52.8 6.8 12.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.8 12.6 82.9 58.8 47.1 2.8 7.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 29.5 33.8 18.3 105.0 62.7 52.5 15.9 25.1 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.8 17.5 18.4 116.0 71.7 56.4 3.5 10.8 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 23.5 20.3 114.3 67.7 56.1 7.6 11.0 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.5 13.7 18.9 111.7 67.6 56.1 6.9 9.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.7 16.6 102.2 60.9 52.2 7.4 13.5 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.5 20.5 113.4 63.4 56.0 5.1 9.2 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.7 16.5 20.0 102.7 63.7 50.7 8.4 11.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 15.5 16.8 107.6 69.5 54.9 3.9 6.1 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.9 16.8 17.7 108.2 64.1 54.1 5.6 11.4 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.6 12.2 79.4 58.2 46.4 2.8 5.7 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.4 13.7 21.2 108.8 67.0 51.5 8.3 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.9 13.2 80.4 58.3 46.9 3.1 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.9 21.3 109.6 64.4 52.7 8.5 12.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.4 16.8 103.1 67.3 53.4 4.0 6.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.3 9.4 12.2 72.9 54.4 42.9 5.8 7.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.4 14.8 87.1 58.9 48.6 2.6 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.9 19.8 105.2 65.3 51.0 8.7 12.0 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.8 13.2 19.0 105.0 68.6 54.4 2.6 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 6.3 17.2 16.1 93.7 55.6 48.9 8.4 13.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.5 17.2 94.2 63.7 50.6 3.0 7.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.6 19.2 17.1 111.9 69.1 55.5 4.6 11.8 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.9 24.4 22.2 108.9 66.2 51.5 12.9 19.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.2 14.4 88.9 61.9 50.5 4.8 5.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------