***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.5 13.5 9.6 54.4 39.6 35.8 12.2 15.3 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.8 12.2 8.8 50.4 43.2 35.0 9.5 12.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 7.3 11.4 10.7 62.6 47.7 39.6 9.0 11.9 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 11.9 14.2 71.1 46.7 39.9 8.3 12.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.0 13.8 75.6 57.1 45.6 10.2 16.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.5 11.2 16.6 84.4 49.0 45.4 5.5 11.5 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.7 11.4 9.3 55.0 43.9 36.9 5.7 12.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 21.0 26.1 21.8 110.4 64.2 56.1 12.3 18.5 27.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.7 14.0 14.9 82.3 55.4 46.2 7.5 13.1 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 15.8 20.4 96.1 59.8 51.0 8.6 14.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.2 14.7 83.3 55.9 47.1 3.7 12.5 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.4 10.8 16.6 100.2 58.5 53.0 5.8 9.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.4 11.0 15.1 85.8 54.9 47.4 5.5 10.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.4 18.7 15.5 77.6 51.0 44.3 9.0 18.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.1 8.3 11.1 68.1 51.6 36.7 4.4 7.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 10.5 13.4 76.0 49.4 44.0 7.7 11.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.4 7.6 9.3 57.2 45.4 36.4 3.5 8.6 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 19.0 21.6 98.2 57.2 53.3 7.8 15.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.1 14.6 9.3 53.1 44.4 35.6 10.7 16.1 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 16.7 20.9 24.6 119.1 64.8 60.7 10.2 15.1 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.7 18.2 12.8 70.8 49.2 42.4 8.6 18.2 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.3 8.7 9.4 57.3 43.8 35.2 5.7 10.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.9 11.2 10.4 61.4 47.0 38.2 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.0 14.7 15.5 78.7 49.9 45.9 12.6 14.7 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.9 11.7 56.7 44.2 38.6 7.5 12.2 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.0 14.9 95.5 55.6 51.1 3.0 9.6 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.7 10.4 54.7 40.2 36.4 8.1 14.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 10.3 13.4 72.6 49.6 39.7 7.4 10.4 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.8 19.3 21.9 105.2 58.8 55.7 12.8 17.4 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.7 11.4 9.0 52.2 43.3 36.1 9.2 12.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------