***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 23.4 23.5 23.2 -1.3 30.8 31.4 23.6 24.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 23.7 23.6 23.3 -1.2 33.1 34.6 23.6 24.8 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.2 -1.5 29.2 29.8 23.9 24.7 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 16.4 16.1 20.5 -1.6 24.3 26.6 16.6 17.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 23.9 23.7 21.3 -1.6 24.5 27.0 24.1 24.9 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 22.4 21.9 18.9 -1.6 17.3 25.7 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.4 23.5 23.4 -1.0 34.8 36.0 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 12.0 11.6 19.2 -1.6 20.5 27.1 12.2 12.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 23.2 23.5 21.8 -1.5 25.8 28.2 23.7 24.2 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 23.2 22.9 20.1 -1.6 22.0 27.2 23.5 24.1 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 23.8 23.5 21.1 -1.6 21.1 26.6 23.9 24.7 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 22.6 22.5 20.3 -1.6 20.5 27.1 22.8 23.6 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 23.8 23.3 20.2 -1.6 19.3 26.7 24.1 24.8 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 23.5 23.5 21.6 -1.3 29.9 31.2 23.7 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 24.2 23.8 22.2 -1.6 18.0 25.2 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 24.3 23.8 20.6 -1.6 20.7 26.7 24.4 25.6 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 23.1 23.3 23.2 -0.9 35.1 37.8 23.2 24.0 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 22.8 22.7 19.5 -1.5 23.2 28.4 22.9 23.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 23.0 23.4 23.2 -1.3 31.8 33.1 23.4 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 18.1 18.0 17.1 -1.5 23.4 29.0 18.3 18.9 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.5 23.8 22.7 -1.5 28.2 28.2 23.8 24.5 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 23.5 23.7 22.9 -1.1 33.9 35.8 23.7 24.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 23.8 23.7 23.1 -1.3 31.0 32.5 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 23.2 23.1 21.4 -1.5 25.7 28.8 23.4 24.1 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 23.7 23.4 21.7 -1.4 28.5 29.1 23.6 24.8 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.4 23.0 19.7 -1.4 22.4 29.8 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 23.4 23.4 22.5 -1.3 30.3 31.5 23.4 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 24.2 23.8 21.1 -1.7 19.1 25.1 24.8 25.2 26.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 17.9 17.8 18.7 -1.5 23.5 28.8 18.0 18.6 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.5 23.6 23.3 -1.2 32.4 33.4 23.6 24.5 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------