***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.5 26.1 0.4 59.0 55.0 25.5 26.8 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.7 27.1 26.1 0.5 59.4 56.3 24.8 26.2 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.7 27.3 26.2 0.3 57.8 54.1 25.0 26.0 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 17.7 19.9 23.7 -0.1 55.3 49.7 17.4 19.4 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.9 27.2 24.2 0.0 57.8 51.0 25.3 26.7 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 23.6 25.7 21.7 0.0 54.3 50.4 23.5 25.5 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.4 26.9 26.3 0.7 62.9 57.7 24.6 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.7 14.9 22.4 0.1 57.1 51.2 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.0 27.1 24.4 0.1 58.4 52.0 25.0 26.5 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.3 26.8 23.1 0.1 58.8 52.0 24.9 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.8 27.5 23.9 0.1 57.2 51.1 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.6 25.8 23.4 0.0 55.7 50.1 24.0 25.7 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.0 27.3 22.6 0.0 54.7 50.1 24.9 27.1 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.6 27.3 24.2 0.3 62.5 54.8 24.9 25.8 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 25.2 27.0 24.5 -0.3 49.8 48.0 25.7 27.0 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.3 27.9 23.4 0.0 54.9 50.1 25.7 27.5 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.3 26.1 0.7 61.1 58.0 23.5 25.8 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.2 26.3 22.6 0.2 59.3 52.6 24.6 25.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.0 26.0 0.4 58.3 55.3 24.4 25.6 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.6 21.0 20.2 0.3 59.7 52.6 19.8 20.7 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.1 27.3 25.4 0.1 58.0 52.0 25.1 26.6 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.8 25.7 0.5 59.8 56.3 24.5 26.3 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.9 25.9 0.3 59.4 55.0 24.4 26.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 23.6 26.4 24.1 0.2 59.2 53.3 24.9 25.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.9 24.2 0.1 57.5 52.7 25.3 26.4 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.5 22.9 0.2 56.2 52.3 24.5 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.6 25.2 0.4 58.5 55.1 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 25.3 27.5 23.8 -0.2 52.0 48.2 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 18.3 21.2 21.7 0.3 59.0 52.9 19.4 20.4 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.5 26.1 0.5 58.9 55.9 24.8 25.9 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------