***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.9 24.7 -0.4 47.6 46.8 22.2 24.8 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.3 24.7 -0.2 48.8 48.4 23.5 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.1 24.8 -0.6 44.8 45.5 22.3 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.8 22.4 -0.6 46.1 45.0 15.5 16.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.8 22.8 -0.6 46.6 45.4 22.6 25.0 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.3 20.5 -0.3 46.8 47.1 22.1 23.5 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.5 25.0 0.0 51.1 50.1 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 20.9 -0.5 45.5 46.4 11.0 12.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.1 23.0 -0.6 46.4 45.4 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.5 21.7 -0.5 45.7 45.8 22.2 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.3 22.5 -0.5 46.3 45.7 23.4 24.8 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.1 22.0 -0.4 46.0 46.4 22.4 23.4 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.6 21.3 -0.3 46.0 47.3 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.0 22.8 -0.5 46.9 45.9 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.9 24.8 23.2 -0.7 44.4 43.9 23.7 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.0 24.9 22.1 -0.4 46.2 46.5 23.7 25.4 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.1 24.1 24.8 0.1 51.3 50.8 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 22.8 21.1 -0.5 46.4 46.1 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.7 24.7 -0.4 46.7 46.8 23.0 24.0 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 18.0 18.7 -0.4 45.7 47.5 17.3 18.5 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.6 24.0 -0.6 46.0 45.2 22.1 24.6 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.2 24.4 -0.2 48.8 48.6 23.3 24.4 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.0 24.5 -0.5 45.0 45.9 23.2 24.8 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.6 22.7 -0.6 45.2 45.2 22.3 23.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.1 23.0 -0.4 46.2 46.3 22.6 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.1 21.5 -0.2 45.7 48.8 22.6 24.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.0 24.0 -0.3 48.3 47.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.7 22.6 -0.7 45.1 44.3 23.8 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.4 20.2 -0.5 46.5 46.4 17.5 18.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.6 24.8 -0.3 48.0 47.7 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------