***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 23.2 22.7 23.2 -1.0 33.6 39.4 22.7 25.9 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 23.6 23.7 23.2 -0.9 37.4 41.9 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.1 -1.2 30.5 38.1 23.6 25.1 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 15.1 15.4 20.3 -1.3 30.1 37.1 15.9 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 22.8 23.2 21.2 -1.3 30.8 37.5 23.3 24.9 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.9 18.7 -1.4 30.1 37.3 22.2 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 23.3 23.6 23.3 -0.8 37.8 42.8 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 10.7 10.9 19.1 -1.3 31.1 38.7 11.0 12.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 22.2 22.6 21.9 -1.2 30.6 38.4 22.7 24.3 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 22.0 22.7 20.1 -1.3 32.1 38.7 22.8 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.6 21.2 -1.4 31.1 37.5 23.0 24.5 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.5 21.2 20.1 -1.3 29.7 37.8 21.5 23.5 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 22.7 22.3 20.2 -1.5 28.7 36.8 22.9 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 22.8 23.6 21.7 -1.0 33.3 40.8 23.5 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.1 22.2 -1.4 26.8 34.4 23.7 25.0 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 23.4 22.8 20.6 -1.4 29.1 37.3 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.9 23.1 -0.7 41.5 44.4 22.5 24.5 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 21.6 21.9 19.5 -1.2 32.7 40.0 21.9 23.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.9 23.3 23.2 -0.9 35.7 41.2 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 16.8 16.6 17.2 -1.2 32.5 40.0 16.6 18.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 22.9 23.2 22.8 -1.3 31.0 37.5 23.2 25.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.0 22.9 -0.8 40.6 43.4 22.7 24.9 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 23.2 23.2 23.0 -0.9 34.4 41.4 23.1 25.0 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.5 -1.2 31.6 39.3 22.8 24.4 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 23.0 22.9 21.7 -1.2 31.5 37.7 23.0 25.3 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 21.9 22.2 19.3 -1.3 31.1 38.4 22.3 23.3 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.9 22.8 22.5 -1.0 33.5 39.1 22.8 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.0 21.0 -1.4 28.4 35.8 23.5 25.0 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 16.7 16.9 18.7 -1.1 33.4 40.3 16.8 18.6 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 23.5 23.6 23.2 -1.0 35.3 40.8 23.2 25.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------