***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 19.8 18.0 18.9 -4.2 11.1 12.3 22.2 23.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 19.9 19.2 19.0 -4.1 10.0 12.6 22.6 24.9 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 20.8 18.7 18.8 -4.4 11.1 12.0 22.1 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 13.4 11.8 15.8 -4.3 10.5 12.9 14.3 17.2 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 21.0 18.4 16.9 -4.5 10.1 12.7 22.1 24.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 19.8 19.4 14.6 -4.5 14.7 14.5 21.4 22.7 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 20.0 18.7 19.0 -4.0 11.0 13.0 22.6 24.3 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 8.8 8.2 14.5 -4.7 13.6 13.2 10.9 12.4 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 20.2 18.3 17.9 -4.4 10.6 12.9 21.9 24.1 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 19.5 18.9 15.6 -4.7 11.9 12.8 22.3 23.7 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 19.9 18.8 17.1 -4.7 10.6 12.9 22.5 23.9 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 19.2 18.5 15.6 -4.6 13.0 13.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 20.3 19.9 16.5 -4.5 13.2 14.1 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 19.4 18.2 17.6 -4.2 11.7 13.1 22.0 24.8 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 21.5 20.7 18.8 -4.1 11.8 13.7 22.6 24.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 21.1 20.5 16.5 -4.5 12.4 13.4 22.7 24.5 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 19.8 18.6 18.8 -3.8 11.2 13.1 22.2 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 18.9 17.6 14.7 -4.7 10.6 12.8 21.6 23.3 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 20.0 18.3 18.9 -4.2 9.7 12.3 22.0 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 14.7 13.6 12.6 -4.7 13.6 13.9 16.9 18.3 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 20.6 18.6 18.7 -4.4 11.1 12.5 22.0 24.2 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 20.0 18.9 18.8 -3.8 11.7 13.2 22.6 24.7 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 19.7 18.9 18.8 -4.1 10.4 12.4 22.6 24.5 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 19.0 17.8 17.3 -4.5 10.6 12.5 21.8 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 20.1 19.4 17.8 -4.2 10.4 12.3 21.9 24.1 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.0 19.6 15.0 -4.3 14.5 14.9 22.3 23.7 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 20.3 18.6 18.3 -4.2 10.8 12.0 22.2 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 21.1 20.5 17.0 -4.3 11.9 13.5 22.0 23.8 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 13.4 12.6 14.0 -4.7 11.2 12.9 16.5 18.6 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 20.1 19.2 19.0 -4.2 10.7 12.5 22.2 24.2 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------