***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 12.1 11.8 13.4 -1.2 21.6 27.6 12.4 12.8 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.2 -1.0 26.1 30.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.3 13.5 -1.1 20.7 26.6 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 8.5 8.2 10.9 -1.2 20.1 25.0 8.8 9.5 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 10.6 10.3 11.3 -1.2 17.5 24.4 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 9.4 9.4 9.1 -1.0 20.0 26.2 9.6 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 12.2 12.2 13.4 -1.0 26.0 30.9 12.5 13.0 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.1 9.1 -0.9 25.5 30.6 4.4 5.1 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 11.7 11.3 11.6 -1.0 18.4 26.4 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.3 10.0 -0.9 22.2 28.6 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.1 10.9 -1.0 22.7 27.7 11.4 11.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 9.5 9.3 9.9 -1.0 22.7 28.6 9.6 10.0 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 10.9 10.7 9.7 -0.9 23.1 28.0 10.8 11.3 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 12.0 11.8 11.5 -1.0 20.8 27.7 12.4 12.9 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 12.4 12.3 12.5 -1.1 21.3 25.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.4 10.4 -1.0 22.1 27.4 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.2 -0.9 28.9 32.5 12.6 13.2 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 9.9 9.6 9.5 -0.9 20.8 28.5 10.1 10.6 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 12.0 11.8 13.2 -1.1 24.8 28.9 12.3 12.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.0 5.7 7.3 -0.9 23.6 30.0 5.9 6.7 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 11.8 11.6 12.9 -1.1 20.9 26.8 11.8 12.2 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 11.8 11.6 13.0 -0.9 27.4 31.1 11.7 12.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 11.5 11.6 13.1 -1.0 24.7 28.7 11.9 12.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 11.6 11.3 11.4 -1.0 21.4 27.3 11.9 12.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 11.8 11.6 12.2 -1.2 20.2 26.5 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 10.5 10.3 9.1 -1.0 19.5 26.5 10.4 11.0 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.8 -1.2 21.1 26.9 12.6 13.0 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.4 11.5 -1.1 21.4 25.5 10.7 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.7 -0.9 21.1 28.9 8.6 9.3 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.3 13.4 -1.1 24.0 29.1 12.5 13.2 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------