***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 16.1 0.5 58.2 57.5 13.9 14.9 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.8 15.9 0.6 56.9 58.6 13.2 14.2 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.4 16.2 0.4 56.8 56.1 14.7 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.1 13.6 0.3 55.2 54.7 9.8 11.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.0 13.6 0.3 52.1 53.9 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.7 11.6 0.4 57.5 56.3 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.2 16.1 0.7 59.7 59.0 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.1 6.7 11.5 0.4 57.8 56.3 5.5 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.9 13.8 0.3 52.3 54.2 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.6 12.4 0.3 54.6 55.2 12.9 13.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.5 13.0 0.3 53.5 54.9 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.8 12.3 0.4 57.3 56.0 10.7 11.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 11.9 13.5 11.8 0.4 58.1 55.6 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.0 13.9 0.3 56.3 55.4 13.4 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 14.9 0.4 56.8 55.6 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.2 12.6 0.4 55.6 55.6 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.4 15.9 0.7 57.2 59.2 13.5 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.5 11.8 0.4 54.8 55.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 15.9 0.5 56.5 57.6 13.4 14.9 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.0 8.4 9.4 0.4 59.1 56.4 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.1 15.3 0.4 54.6 55.2 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.3 15.6 0.6 55.8 57.6 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.6 15.7 0.4 56.9 56.5 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.1 13.7 0.4 54.0 55.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 14.7 0.5 60.3 57.2 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.8 11.5 0.4 60.8 56.1 12.1 12.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 0.5 61.0 57.7 13.4 14.0 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 12.1 12.9 13.9 0.3 55.0 54.9 11.9 12.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.9 11.1 0.4 56.2 55.9 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.5 16.1 0.6 58.2 58.0 13.6 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------