***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.0 15.1 0.1 54.2 50.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.7 14.9 0.1 53.5 51.9 11.5 12.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.5 15.2 0.0 51.9 49.9 12.9 14.4 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.1 12.6 0.0 47.9 50.1 8.1 9.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.3 10.9 12.6 0.0 46.8 49.6 10.7 11.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.9 10.4 0.0 46.0 48.7 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.3 15.1 0.1 54.2 52.0 11.9 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.0 10.4 0.1 48.2 50.7 4.0 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.1 12.9 0.0 48.3 49.8 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.1 11.4 0.0 49.3 50.5 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.5 12.0 0.0 45.1 49.9 11.2 11.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 11.1 0.0 44.4 49.8 9.8 10.4 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.2 10.6 0.0 46.9 49.5 10.9 11.3 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.0 12.8 0.0 51.4 49.9 11.9 12.9 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.2 13.8 -0.1 46.4 48.1 13.0 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 11.5 0.1 48.1 50.2 11.4 12.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.2 14.8 0.2 54.6 52.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 10.8 0.1 50.1 50.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.9 14.9 0.1 53.4 51.1 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.8 8.4 0.1 49.1 51.3 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.1 14.3 0.0 49.9 50.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.5 14.5 0.1 53.4 51.7 11.5 12.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.6 14.7 0.0 53.2 50.4 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.4 12.6 0.0 51.6 50.1 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.2 13.7 0.1 52.0 51.4 11.1 12.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.9 10.3 0.0 45.7 49.2 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.2 14.5 0.1 53.8 51.0 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.1 12.9 0.0 47.5 48.9 10.8 11.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.8 10.1 0.0 49.5 50.9 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 15.1 0.1 54.3 51.4 11.8 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------