***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 10.5 10.1 12.8 -1.5 23.0 27.2 11.8 12.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 10.7 11.1 12.8 -1.1 29.1 33.1 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 12.6 12.2 13.0 -1.4 24.6 28.2 13.1 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 6.7 7.0 10.4 -1.5 22.6 27.7 8.0 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 9.4 9.0 10.9 -1.5 21.2 27.3 10.0 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.5 -1.4 22.0 28.1 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.9 -1.1 27.3 33.5 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.4 2.7 8.7 -1.1 25.1 33.1 2.9 5.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 9.8 10.4 11.2 -1.3 25.1 29.0 10.8 12.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 9.7 10.7 9.7 -1.1 25.3 32.0 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.6 -1.2 23.7 30.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.7 9.5 -1.2 24.6 31.0 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.1 9.7 9.3 -1.3 21.3 28.3 10.5 11.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 10.9 10.9 11.2 -1.1 25.6 32.3 11.8 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.1 10.5 11.9 -1.5 19.0 24.9 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.7 10.2 9.9 -1.4 22.4 28.1 10.9 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 11.1 12.2 12.8 -0.8 28.9 37.2 12.2 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.5 8.7 9.2 -1.0 25.2 33.6 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.5 12.8 -1.1 28.8 32.5 11.8 12.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.9 5.2 7.1 -1.0 27.1 35.1 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.4 12.4 -1.4 24.3 28.3 10.7 12.1 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.0 12.8 -0.9 30.3 36.3 11.3 12.0 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.9 10.9 12.7 -1.1 28.2 32.4 11.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.1 -1.1 25.8 31.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 10.3 9.9 11.7 -1.6 22.2 25.9 11.7 12.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.2 8.6 -1.4 21.3 28.6 9.7 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 10.9 10.5 12.3 -1.5 21.9 26.4 11.6 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 9.1 9.0 10.9 -1.5 22.3 27.1 10.4 11.0 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.8 6.9 8.5 -1.0 26.3 34.2 7.5 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.9 -1.2 28.0 31.2 11.7 12.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------