***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 73.9 69.4 69.0 97.6 52.6 49.0 52.4 65.6 77.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 70.0 65.6 60.4 92.2 49.8 47.3 53.5 65.8 78.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 80.0 74.2 68.4 98.3 54.6 50.3 57.9 70.9 81.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 87.4 82.7 74.9 101.9 57.9 51.5 54.1 79.7 88.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 67.1 67.7 72.9 101.1 60.0 52.4 53.9 64.0 69.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 50.3 69.6 86.1 105.2 59.9 54.1 48.1 62.4 80.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 38.1 56.5 58.4 89.3 48.3 44.8 37.7 57.7 68.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 105.6 103.8 87.7 107.5 62.9 56.4 86.7 97.3 105.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 62.3 71.1 76.1 102.9 61.2 53.7 52.2 57.3 75.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 76.0 83.6 89.7 105.8 61.9 55.3 47.9 68.8 94.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 61.4 63.2 74.5 104.8 61.5 54.2 41.9 54.9 71.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 67.5 69.2 74.6 105.9 61.6 55.1 43.2 63.0 70.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 67.7 69.2 82.2 108.5 63.4 56.1 43.5 61.7 71.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 91.2 94.2 96.0 110.7 63.8 57.8 74.3 84.2 94.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 35.5 59.2 69.0 107.1 59.5 52.7 36.2 52.5 61.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 65.7 69.9 75.9 106.2 61.3 54.4 47.0 60.3 72.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 44.8 63.7 57.1 89.9 48.8 45.9 43.2 64.7 79.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 74.8 92.1 97.4 108.4 63.0 56.7 61.2 67.8 92.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 77.1 69.8 63.6 95.6 52.9 49.4 53.9 69.7 86.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 84.0 82.7 99.7 112.4 66.8 59.8 57.6 69.8 82.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 64.6 62.2 70.8 100.2 57.3 51.9 42.9 59.8 64.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 73.1 69.1 61.4 94.3 52.9 48.9 58.2 68.4 75.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 65.3 63.3 68.9 100.1 56.9 52.0 49.5 60.8 69.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 80.3 82.3 86.6 107.4 61.3 55.5 65.1 75.9 83.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 67.1 65.8 76.5 98.4 56.0 50.4 52.0 59.8 78.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 63.2 67.5 77.6 112.4 67.4 58.8 43.4 58.0 67.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 78.2 74.5 74.6 97.8 53.8 49.1 44.5 73.2 90.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 36.4 58.9 74.9 107.0 59.8 53.5 45.1 53.5 65.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 98.3 112.0 100.2 112.0 66.2 58.7 74.0 86.6 111.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 69.6 60.6 63.1 94.6 50.2 48.0 47.0 60.5 77.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------