***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.2 27.5 16.9 92.9 60.2 47.1 7.5 13.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 19.5 20.9 14.2 86.0 57.5 46.0 9.6 17.1 23.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.3 25.3 16.6 91.7 57.8 46.7 5.9 16.6 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.0 18.2 16.2 86.0 59.4 47.8 5.1 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.9 15.3 15.4 80.3 58.5 45.8 4.8 10.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.2 16.9 19.2 88.5 53.1 46.3 10.5 15.4 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.0 13.9 13.2 81.2 55.7 44.4 9.2 12.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 27.2 23.7 19.3 89.3 56.2 49.2 11.3 20.1 34.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 19.1 17.3 16.3 82.1 58.1 45.5 7.6 14.4 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.3 19.0 19.7 85.5 55.6 47.7 4.4 18.1 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.1 14.5 14.8 80.4 57.4 47.5 6.1 11.8 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.7 14.4 15.8 85.2 56.1 48.4 3.5 13.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.8 15.0 18.4 93.9 57.5 50.2 7.0 9.7 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.2 22.0 21.3 93.0 57.9 45.1 11.4 18.5 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.7 14.3 86.6 61.6 47.1 3.0 10.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.1 11.1 15.9 85.7 56.6 49.2 4.5 8.7 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.9 13.8 89.4 60.0 46.0 5.5 16.1 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.4 18.0 22.1 91.1 55.7 48.2 9.0 15.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.7 16.8 15.4 89.3 58.0 46.6 6.9 15.5 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.6 23.1 101.0 58.7 51.7 6.2 14.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.6 19.0 16.2 86.6 59.8 46.4 8.5 13.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.8 21.4 15.4 93.4 60.7 47.9 9.7 16.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.3 16.0 16.6 90.9 57.5 45.6 7.7 14.6 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.1 22.9 19.3 90.6 58.3 46.2 11.2 18.9 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.2 17.7 18.3 93.3 61.1 48.1 4.4 12.5 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.7 19.6 16.4 99.6 61.9 52.4 2.3 10.9 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.5 28.0 17.9 92.3 59.6 46.9 6.7 19.4 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.0 15.9 86.6 59.2 48.1 1.7 8.4 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.4 22.7 96.4 58.2 49.6 9.3 19.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.3 21.5 14.8 87.2 56.2 46.3 13.4 18.3 22.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------