***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.8 19.9 17.0 100.7 64.0 49.7 6.5 14.2 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.8 15.7 102.5 65.8 51.1 7.7 13.8 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.8 22.0 16.3 99.5 62.8 50.0 8.2 18.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 21.4 24.9 17.9 102.5 64.0 53.0 11.7 17.1 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.0 20.5 17.9 109.7 68.0 55.2 9.3 12.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.1 20.6 20.8 107.1 66.7 52.7 10.5 15.3 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.0 16.0 104.3 65.9 50.9 2.7 7.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 34.3 18.1 96.1 62.1 51.5 19.5 24.6 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.9 22.5 18.3 105.9 66.8 53.5 10.3 17.9 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 20.4 19.1 96.0 62.7 50.9 8.7 13.9 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.0 20.4 15.9 103.4 64.9 54.5 6.1 16.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.7 16.6 103.1 64.6 54.2 7.2 13.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.5 19.9 111.5 67.8 55.7 5.7 12.0 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.8 21.2 97.8 61.0 52.0 16.4 20.3 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.4 15.4 96.7 66.1 53.0 3.4 8.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.6 22.4 18.3 112.2 68.5 56.2 6.7 13.1 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.9 14.5 99.5 63.5 49.9 9.1 14.8 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 22.0 20.6 93.5 58.6 50.7 13.2 18.9 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 20.8 20.3 15.7 102.0 65.6 51.8 4.7 17.3 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 14.4 20.9 94.5 58.7 50.0 8.0 12.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.1 19.7 16.8 100.4 63.7 51.8 7.2 15.1 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.6 14.9 100.2 61.7 51.3 6.7 10.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 17.8 20.3 15.7 99.8 64.5 52.8 8.2 15.5 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.8 19.3 99.2 62.4 52.4 12.5 22.6 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 18.9 21.4 17.5 94.4 62.9 51.5 9.9 17.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 18.2 18.5 113.9 69.2 56.2 4.6 6.8 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.3 19.8 17.5 95.6 63.4 49.9 7.0 14.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.6 17.8 106.3 65.8 54.0 6.6 13.5 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 29.3 33.1 20.5 93.1 59.2 50.5 14.2 26.6 35.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.0 20.7 16.5 104.7 66.3 51.1 7.8 13.4 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------