***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.6 22.5 134.6 73.6 60.9 7.5 11.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 15.0 18.8 124.3 68.9 58.3 4.4 5.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 18.6 20.9 127.3 71.0 60.2 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.2 20.8 21.9 119.0 68.8 55.0 5.8 9.5 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.5 16.2 20.8 114.4 67.9 55.4 6.8 12.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.9 15.2 21.8 104.4 60.9 52.5 5.8 11.7 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.1 19.4 127.9 70.5 58.2 4.3 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 27.3 21.3 111.4 62.3 53.5 11.8 16.7 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.7 21.3 115.8 67.8 55.1 5.1 8.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.7 19.2 22.4 113.1 64.0 54.0 7.8 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.9 21.0 111.6 64.1 53.6 5.8 8.9 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.2 16.4 19.8 111.0 64.3 54.0 4.0 11.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.7 10.3 19.2 100.4 59.5 49.6 4.4 8.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 22.0 26.2 27.6 138.1 73.7 60.9 8.0 12.7 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 15.5 21.0 128.3 72.2 57.7 5.3 7.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.7 15.5 20.3 109.7 64.2 52.8 4.1 6.1 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.6 18.4 123.3 68.6 56.8 2.4 6.3 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 19.4 24.9 117.5 67.1 55.7 4.4 12.7 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 19.0 14.5 19.2 126.0 69.5 59.7 4.6 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 16.6 22.9 108.5 63.3 52.3 6.9 12.7 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.3 21.1 123.7 70.6 57.4 5.5 7.7 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 17.8 11.3 18.5 125.3 69.6 58.4 6.5 9.0 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.3 16.0 20.9 131.7 71.2 61.0 4.2 7.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 18.7 24.0 124.0 69.6 57.8 4.9 10.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.0 24.5 132.1 71.7 60.3 4.2 7.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.3 19.5 20.7 112.8 65.6 55.5 5.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.3 15.2 25.1 138.8 74.7 61.7 6.1 10.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.3 17.7 20.6 118.9 68.7 55.1 5.2 11.6 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 22.7 26.0 119.1 67.8 54.8 12.7 16.3 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 15.0 20.1 130.0 71.6 60.0 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------