***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.2 12.6 66.7 45.3 40.1 8.2 11.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.4 11.6 63.0 44.0 38.8 6.6 10.2 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.3 12.5 14.6 78.2 53.5 45.8 8.5 10.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.4 15.6 18.9 100.8 59.4 49.3 6.9 11.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.4 18.8 101.8 62.7 52.5 7.0 14.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.6 17.9 24.3 122.9 67.7 58.7 6.4 10.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.7 3.8 9.9 52.9 35.5 33.0 3.8 10.2 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 27.7 26.4 29.0 131.4 72.7 62.1 13.9 18.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.0 14.5 20.2 110.1 63.9 55.5 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 20.6 22.0 28.5 128.6 71.4 61.2 7.2 12.7 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.6 22.8 122.5 70.0 57.3 2.9 9.3 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.5 14.7 22.4 124.4 70.1 58.7 5.8 8.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.2 13.5 24.7 128.9 68.5 60.1 4.2 10.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.7 25.9 117.6 71.9 60.7 8.3 13.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 14.9 18.3 117.1 66.7 52.7 1.8 6.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.7 16.7 21.5 118.0 66.1 56.1 6.5 11.3 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.2 10.5 56.2 40.4 35.5 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 22.5 29.8 132.9 72.6 63.4 6.6 12.3 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 14.0 13.3 71.3 50.6 43.4 10.3 13.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 20.6 24.9 32.8 146.4 77.0 67.5 8.1 12.3 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 16.8 92.3 55.1 49.6 6.0 10.5 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.5 12.5 66.1 46.2 40.7 5.2 8.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.4 15.7 82.7 57.0 48.7 6.4 11.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.6 21.0 24.0 117.7 68.0 58.6 6.6 13.3 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.1 9.6 16.2 77.0 53.7 43.4 5.7 8.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.1 20.1 22.0 122.4 68.5 58.1 5.0 9.1 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.1 10.1 14.1 68.8 47.6 40.2 6.2 11.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.3 20.7 117.3 66.3 54.1 6.2 9.3 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 23.5 24.9 31.0 140.2 74.1 66.4 12.2 19.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.2 11.9 11.7 63.2 44.0 39.1 8.3 12.8 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------