***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 23.3 23.4 22.8 -1.1 32.2 33.7 23.5 24.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.7 22.9 -1.0 36.5 36.2 23.7 24.9 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 23.4 23.9 22.9 -1.2 30.8 33.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 16.3 15.9 20.1 -1.3 26.6 29.6 16.1 17.8 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 23.8 23.7 20.8 -1.5 25.7 28.6 23.9 25.0 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 22.2 21.9 18.4 -1.6 21.3 26.1 22.4 23.3 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.4 23.5 22.8 -1.0 36.6 35.0 23.3 24.4 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 11.7 11.6 18.7 -1.6 22.4 26.5 12.0 12.7 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.5 21.4 -1.3 27.2 30.2 23.6 24.1 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 23.1 22.8 19.7 -1.5 24.6 28.4 23.4 24.1 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 23.5 23.6 20.7 -1.5 25.5 29.0 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 22.6 22.3 19.8 -1.5 24.8 28.2 22.7 23.8 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 23.6 23.4 19.7 -1.5 24.5 27.6 23.9 24.9 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 23.3 22.9 20.9 -1.5 23.0 28.3 23.8 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.3 21.9 -1.1 31.9 33.0 24.4 25.3 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 24.1 23.8 20.2 -1.5 25.6 28.7 24.2 25.5 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.0 23.4 22.6 -1.0 35.4 35.8 23.2 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 22.7 22.5 19.0 -1.6 23.1 27.6 22.8 23.6 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.6 23.4 22.9 -1.0 35.8 35.9 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 17.7 17.7 16.5 -1.7 21.0 25.1 18.1 18.8 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 23.2 23.6 22.3 -1.4 26.7 29.7 23.8 24.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 23.6 23.6 22.3 -1.2 30.3 33.0 23.7 24.8 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.7 23.6 22.8 -1.1 33.6 34.9 23.6 24.8 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 23.0 23.0 21.0 -1.4 25.4 29.2 23.3 24.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 23.5 23.2 21.2 -1.3 25.2 29.7 23.4 24.8 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 23.3 23.2 19.4 -1.1 29.5 33.2 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 23.2 23.1 22.0 -1.2 28.7 32.3 23.3 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 24.0 24.0 20.8 -1.3 27.9 30.3 24.3 25.2 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 17.7 17.6 18.1 -1.6 21.9 26.4 17.9 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.5 23.6 22.9 -1.1 34.9 35.0 23.5 24.7 25.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------